New BRICS—new edifice?
🌐 A once marginal group lays claim to the global stage.
WorldWise readers—
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INSIGHT | views & analysis
It’s a group angling to shake things up.
If BRICS was once an acronym reserved for somewhat esoteric conversations about affairs of the Global South, that has surely changed in the past couple of weeks.
On August 22-24, the so-called BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—held their annual summit. Only this year it was different.
The media noise around it began weeks ago, initially linked to the prospect of Vladimir Putin risking arrest by planning to attend the meeting in Johannesburg, as would be South Africa’s legal obligation under International Criminal Court rules.
Russia’s foreign minister made the trip in the end, and that was that.
But it’s the result of the summit that’s making real waves. BRICS leaders agreed to expand the club by adding six countries from next year: Iran and Saudi Arabia will join in January, followed by Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
So what?
In short: the decision to expand is the BRICS’ first ever, and signals a growing wave of countries that see an opportunity to counter Western dominance on the global stage. The move has attracted a level of interest rarely seen in the 14 years since the group was formed.
The longer answer, in six parts:
This is a group of countries which are either sceptical of or keen to challenge the geopolitical status quo. Spread across the world, there’s not much else that unites them. For China and Russia that goal isn’t particularly subtle, but others too have long had concerns about the world’s reliance on the US dollar and financial institutions (the WTO, IMF, World Bank) that are effectively run from the Global North.
The timing is significant. The war on Ukraine, together with a global economic downturn and the aftermath of the pandemic, have created a tense political moment with opportunities for realignment. Analysts see the sanctions against Russia and China as a catalyst for those countries to lead a wider challenge against reliance on Western economies.
There’s a receptive audience. Reports vary, but at least 20 countries are said to have formally applied for membership and dozens of others have otherwise shown interest in joining the BRICS.
This is a loose alliance that may be ready to morph into something new. The BRICS group has been considering adding new members for years, but never managed to reach agreement. As a club with newfound popularity meets the current moment, this could be a turning point in the group’s identity and purpose.
Collectively, they represent a large slice of the world’s population and economy. Currently, that stands at just over 40% of the world’s population, about 25% of global GDP—higher than the G7 group of nations as of March—and just under 20% of global trade. With its new members, the group will account for 46% of the global population and 30% of global GDP.
There’s support from the top echelons of the UN. Secretary-General António Guterres was there when the BRICS announced their expansion, which analysts see as a reflection of their growing influence. Guterres’ speech echoed calls for reform of multilateral institutions including the IMF and World Bank.
A checkered history and present
Let’s step back for a minute.
If you’ve been wondering what BRICS actually is, you’re probably not alone. It’s no household name like the G20. It’s not an actual organisation with a secretariat. You might see it described as a bloc, an alliance, a forum or a platform.
So, what is it? Here’s a brief overview:
It was first named into existence some 22 years ago. The term BRIC was coined by British economist Jim O’Neill in 2001 to describe the economic rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China. They made up just 8% of the global economy at the time, but were rising fast, and O’Neill wrote that this raised questions about global governance. He didn’t quite expect the four countries to run away with the idea, but they did—forming an informal transnational group a few years later.
South Africa joined in 2010, making it BRICS, and its influence grew. The group was officially set up and had its first summit in 2009. It began to meet annually and, over time, became a leading voice calling for more representation for the Global South in world affairs. The group’s appeal grew after the financial crises of recent years.
But performance reviews are mixed. By most accounts, including O’Neill himself, BRICS has struggled to fulfil its potential. The past 14 years have gone by without tangible achievements or geopolitical influence beyond a symbolic presence.
In part, that’s down to the members’ differences. Although their collective share of the global economy has grown, the member countries’ economies have developed at different rates. This is a group with diverse characteristics, interests and alliances—and that remains a reality to this day.
The ONE Campaign had this telling and amusing report from this year’s summit, which speaks to the wrangles under the surface of a united front:
“In a sign of the challenging dynamics inherent in the BRICS, Prime Minister Modi reportedly refused to depart his aircraft upon landing in South Africa after the South African government sent a cabinet minister to welcome him. In contrast, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa personally met Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plane. After breaking the news on its website, the South Africa media outlet the Daily Maverick experienced a massive distributed denial of service attack originating from India, effectively preventing Indian citizens from accessing the story.”
By several accounts, China and Russia were behind the drive for this year’s fast expansion, with Brazil and India the more cautious among the group. South Africa pushed for more African members. These tensions could linger, and even grow, between members that continue to forge close ties with the US and Europe and those intent on challenging those existing centres of power.
What do they want?
It’s tricky to answer this on behalf of the BRICS as a group. But I make out two strands to what analysts see as the main driving forces behind its growing size and influence (in addition to the push to reform global governance institutions).
One is the group’s desire to project itself as an alternative development partner, and even to develop a BRICS currency to counter dependence on the US dollar. This revolves around the BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB), which was established in 2014 to offer member countries financing without the restrictions of the World Bank and the IMF.
Two, there’s the appeal of strengthening economic interests—a goal not unconnected with having stronger presence in global political institutions. For new members, the BRICS represent a way to diversify business opportunities and international trade. The fact that African countries were particularly keen to join is seen as a sign of the perception that membership is a gateway to new markets, especially for oil and metals. Some of the new members are key players in these commodities.
What of sustainability and climate change? The BRICS countries have large populations and carbon-intensive economies after all, I hear you say. Well, there was mention of “sustainable development” and “inclusive growth” in the summit declaration. But that’s about it.
Met with scepticism
You’ll find nearly as many takes on what the expansion means as the articles published about it, which are in the dozens and counting.
On the question of whether the newly expanded BRICS will emerge as an alternative economic and geopolitical pillar to the US and its allies, where many analysts seem to converge is scepticism about the prospect of any real challenge to the geopolitical status quo. It’s more realistic to expect isolated initiatives and new partnerships within the group.
Hopes are similarly muted on whether the group will amount to a stronger voice for the Global South or usher a new era of South-South cooperation. A larger BRICS could mean even more difficulty to find common ground. Some go as far as to say it’s a risk, given their conflicting motivations.
And the potential economic benefits of joining may be overblown. Since its founding, the BRICS-based development bank has struggled to match the World Bank in loans. It’s hard to see how that will change as China faces an economic downturn and Russia struggles with sanctions.
Consistent with the muted expectations, statements from most political figures in the US and Europe have played down the significance of the BRICS’ recent move. If there’s worry about a growing club led by adversaries angling for a new power centre, it’s well camouflaged behind diplomatic statements.
One exception is the view from Reinhard Bütikofer, foreign policy coordinator of the Greens in the European Parliament, quoted in an article by DW :
“This will significantly increase the international importance of BRICS, even if there are appreciable differences between its members … BRICS was already non-Western, now the emphasis is shifting towards confrontational."
Other analysts see the expansion as a sign of China’s growing influence and focus on the Middle East, citing related developments such as the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation—a security bloc founded by China and Russia in 2001—to include Iran in July.
The bottom line
The growing popularity of the BRICS club may well signal economic opportunism in the face of the bleak situation many countries are in after successive shocks.
But there’s a longer history driving it. This latest development is a sign of growing momentum for a rebalancing against the long-standing dominance of the Global North.
The World Bank and IMF are prominent players in this world order. For decades, there’s been an unspoken rule that the former will be led by an American and the latter by a European. Voting power continues to be skewed against populous countries in the Global South by being linked to share of GDP, not population.
BRICS will most likely not supplant this system. But despite their internal differences, this expansion could bring more leverage. Symbolically, at the very least, it signals that we’re heading towards a world with more diverse poles of influence.
It’s fitting to leave the last word to O’Neill.
Recalling, in a recent TV interview, how he came to name the group, he suggests that diversity was at the root of the intension:
“It [the rise of new economies] led me to think we need to somehow develop a world in which different philosophies, different cultures, different political beliefs and regimes can somehow coexist. My god, we haven’t really got very far in 22 years.”
And a short excerpt from O’Neill’s reaction to the news of BRICS expanding, penned for the Chatham House where he served as president until recently:
“The US and China dominate their respective groups even more than they did in the past. What these dynamics suggest is that neither the G7 nor the BRICS (expanded or otherwise) makes much sense for tackling today’s global challenges. Neither can do much without the direct, equal involvement of the other.”
A take characteristically frank, to the point, and with an eye on what matters beyond stage management—you know, how the world’s leading powers might get to address global crises effectively.
[Selected sources: Euractiv + PBS + AJ + VOA + Vox + Euronews + NYT + Bloomberg + Foreign Policy + Conversation + Independent + Global Voices + WaPo + RFI + SCMP + France24 + DW]
BRIEFING | around the world
News highlights
Three days after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal back in July, India—the world’s largest exporter of rice—banned the export of non-basmati white rice. The move was fuelled by domestic concerns over food security but its impact is believed to be reflected in rising food prices globally, with Asian and African consumers bearing the brunt. [CNN + CNBC + Al Jazeera + Bloomberg]
The people of Ecuador have voted to stop the development of new oilwells in the Yasuní national park in the Amazon, in a rare example of setting limits on resource extraction through a democratic vote. Citizens in the capital, Quito, also voted to block gold mining in the Chocó Andino highland biosphere. [Guardian]
As the Taliban announced it will stop women from visiting a popular national park, concerns mount over the mental health of girls and women in Afghanistan. Unofficial figures and reports from health professionals show a surge in hospital visits and in the number of women taking their own lives. [NBC + Guardian + The Washington Post]
Views of note
Is it time to appoint a Chief Nature Officer? - Amy Nguyen for Forbes
“Appointing a chief nature officer (CNO) is an important step in putting biodiversity and natural capital at the heart of the investment agenda, driving engagement and closing the seismic financing gap.”
Under the radar
The remarkable story of how Yemen’s oil tanker disaster was averted by crowdfunding - Emma Bryce for The Guardian
“When leaks in the engine room in 2020 threatened to sink the ship, it stoked fears of what would happen if the cargo—four times more oil than was spilled by the Exxon Valdez off Alaska in 1989—plunged into the ocean. So, the UN, faced with a “ticking timebomb” and desperate to prevent an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe, turned to an unprecedented source: crowdfunding.”
Against the grain
The EU's deforestation law was cheered here. Brazilian experts and farmers are skeptical - Patricia Figueiredo for Euronews
“Fears are that the new technological requirements for exportation will place an additional financial burden on small-scale producers, which are often more sustainable than larger farmers, to demonstrate their environmental standards. In the end, it might be easier for them to just stop exporting their production to Europe at all.”
MEDIA | working communications
Coming up soon: photography + science + the SDGs = for about five weeks, from 8 September to 15 October, the festival Open Your Eyes will take over the streets of Zürich with open-air installations across the city. The event brings together photography and science, aiming to raise awareness and call on the public to get behind the vision of the UN's blueprint for well-being and sustainability—an agenda where progress has all but reversed in recent years. The partner institutions behind the event are the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich and the The Photo Society. I’m on my way to the launch and will share impressions with you soon.