Global South blind spots + more
🌎 Your briefing from the WorldWise desk.
Welcome to WorldWise, a newsletter to help discerning readers get truly global insight where current affairs meet humanity, written by Anita Makri.
This is a Weekly Briefing with key headlines curated to make sense of the news.
New data, new narrative.
The Economist’s data gurus have been hard at work. They’ve taken known data about coronavirus variables such as deaths and demographic patterns—121 of those variables—and then used statistical techniques to make up for blind spots in order to come up with a true(er) picture of the pandemic’s global toll (Economist + Economist).
Their estimates: about 7-13 million deaths down to Covid-19, so far—more than three times the official number.
There’s an even more significant insight coming out of these estimates. I’ll simply quote Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes on this:
Official figures suggest that the pandemic has struck in waves, and that the rich countries have been hit hard, while much of the developing world has seemed to get off lightly. But the overwhelming majority of the 6.7m or so deaths that nobody has counted have been in poor and middle-income countries. The virus has spread remorselessly from rich countries to poorer ones—and it is still doing so.
Alongside poor counting, there’s also a poor capacity to track variants in some parts of the world. According to this apt piece by Meredith Wadman in Science magazine, most countries genetically sequence less than 1% of their virus samples—and that means that variants are almost certainly circulating unnoticed.
The latest concern on that front is the B.1.617 strain found in India, the fourth to be classified by the WHO as a ‘variant of concern’, which is spreading globally (WSJ + CNBC + Al Jazeera). Scientists are scrambling to understand it, and neighbouring nations are looking for it (Nature + WP + Nature). We can only track and prepare for what gets identified.
The Economist concludes its analysis with a warning:
Unless vaccines go global, the tragic scenes now unfolding in India risk being repeated elsewhere. Millions more will die.
Blind spots in genetic sequencing suggest scientific capacity needs to go global too.
Beyond the pandemic
HUMANITARIAN | At least 21 people have died and dozens are missing as Cyclone Tauktae, a category 4 tropical storm and the most severe cyclone in over two decades, hits the west coast of India in Gujarat state (Al Jazeera + Axios + TRF). In some affected areas, hundreds of thousands have been evacuated and COVID vaccinations suspended (WaPo + LAHT). Israel's assault on Gaza comes as hospitals already struggle with COVID, and this could spread the virus further, the UN has warned (NYT + Euronews + VOA). Protests over increased taxes and health care reform in Colombia have entered a third week, and are reportedly fuelled by pressures related to the pandemic, poverty, conflict and migration. In Cambodia, thousands are going hungry in areas under strict lockdown; the government is also cracking down on dissent (Guardian + Al Jazeera).
DEVELOPMENT & AID | Latin America’s economy has been hurt badly by the pandemic—it contracted by 7% last year, compared to 3% globally— and the Economist’s death statistics suggests that the drop is driven by public health: the region’s excess deaths, relative to population, have been among the world’s highest. Contrary to what was predicted in the early days of the pandemic, money transfers from migrant workers to developing countries worldwide haven’t dropped during the crisis, according to the World Bank.
HEALTH | A French court has dismissed a landmark case against the US makers of the toxic herbicide Agent Orange, which was brought by Tran To Nga, a 79-year-old French-Vietnamese woman whose claim relates to poisoning during the Vietnam War (she plans to appeal). A few years ago, the CIA ran a fake vaccination campaign during their search for Osama bin Laden in Pakistan—researchers now find it led to a drop in child immunisations and are concerned that lingering suspicions may undermine the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.
FORESTS | Some forest has grown back since 2000—an area equivalent to the size of France, according to satellite data analysis: encouraging, but not quite enough. Brazil’s government continues to weaken environmental regulations, failing to protect indigenous populations in the Amazon and courting economic development of rainforest areas (Guardian + Mongabay + Mongabay + FT + FT).
🔹 Other headlines that caught my eye
Planting frenzy misses the grasslands for the trees - Mongabay
One in four cities cannot afford to adapt to climate change - Guardian + France24
Donkey skin ruling a 'massive blow' for Kenya's smallholder farmers - Devex
Long working hours killing 745,000 people a year, study finds - BBC
Inside the Tigray conflict - Guardian
Catching up with Covid-19
SNAPSHOTS FROM THE GLOBAL SOUTH | Record numbers of deaths are still being reported from India (AP + WaPo + LAHT + Axios). Although case numbers are declining, positive tests that remain high. The crisis is spreading to rural areas, where healthcare is harder to find (WaPo + Al Jazeera). Unsurprisingly, it’s hitting poor people the hardest, and black markets for medical care products are thriving (Economist + NYT). Reports from neighbouring Nepal suggest cases are now surging there too: emergency rooms and crematoriums are reportedly swamped, and the country is calling for international support (Guardian + WP + Nat Geo + NDTV + Global Voices). China has set up a dividing line on Mount Everest, citing the crisis.
Asia is in the grips of a surge too, with close to six million new cases recorded in the past two weeks (Axios + NYT + AP + Economist). Reports from Thailand indicate record numbers of infections that may be driven by outbreaks in prisons (VOA + LAHT + Al Jazeera), while Malaysia has imposed restrictions nationwide.
Meanwhile, things are far from being under control in the Americas, according to the region’s UN office. Death counts remain high, and hospitals are strained. The B.1.617 variant driving India’s outbreak has been detected in six Latin American countries. Brazil is seeing unusually high numbers of deaths among children.
There are hardly any reports from Africa. But a forecast by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation suggests a spike is coming for a handful of countries on the continent.
PUBLIC HEALTH RESPONSE | A widely covered report by an international panel of experts, which gives their verdict after an investigation of the global pandemic response, concludes that the crisis could have been prevented had the world acted a month earlier (Telegraph + Axios + WaPo). They say the crisis should serve as the ‘Chernobyl moment’ for global health reform, and that the WHO needs to be given more powers to do its job better (STAT + Devex + Nature).
TRACING THE ORIGINS | There seems to be growing disquiet after an earlier investigation into the origins of Covid-19 produced little by way of new insight (see this summary from early April). A group of prominent biologists now say a new investigation is warranted, arguing that questions over whether the virus came out of a lab should be left on the table: the lack of evidence makes the theory just as viable as that of natural spillover (MIT Tech Review + NYT).
EVIDENCE ON VACCINES | Delaying the second vaccine dose can boost the immune response in older people. The vaccines we have appear to work well against different variants. There’s evidence that they offer protection for pregnant women, with a possible benefit for infants too. But Brazil has suspended use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine on pregnant women over blood clot concerns. The US health authority has confirmed more cases of a rare blood clot disorder linked to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
VACCINATING THE WORLD | A report by the BBC puts the COVAX vaccine shortfall linked to India’s crisis to 140 million doses. Delays in manufacturing of the Novarax vaccine aren’t helping the supply. Neither do challenges in cold storage in developing countries. Meanwhile, Cuba is forging ahead to immunise its citizens with a homegrown vaccine (Reuters + New Scientist). And debates continue over waiving intellectual property rights and whether it’s the best way to make more vaccines available (Axios + Economist).
🔹 Other headlines that caught my eye
Covid-19 vaccination drive again exposes India’s digital divide - Al Jazeera
How a slum in India defied expectations with its coronavirus response - TRF
Peru to investigate ‘empty syringes’ vaccination scandal - WaPo
South Africa broadens its vaccine programme in the face of a potential third wave - Quartz
Pandemic leads to increase in child labour in Iraq - Al Monitor
Covid-19 revealed the scandal of medical oxygen supplies worldwide - BMJ
How COVID broke the evidence pipeline - Nature 🌎
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