What's on the horizon as pandemic dust settles
Three points, starting with climate change.
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If you’ve followed this space over the weeks or months, you would have seen a pretty healthy crop of articles about pandemic consequences and possible aftermaths.
For a while, it seemed a collective attempt to make sense of the disruption.
But as the dust settles and media coverage loosens its focus on coronavirus, I can make out a few themes with staying power.
#1—The parallel climate crisis
Right after the lockdown shock subsided and we all started to realise what we’re in for, there was a lot of talk drawing parallels between the coronavirus and climate crises. You could almost hear the climate community scream ‘don’t forget this one!’. This piece on Axios is an insightful guide to that talk, with the necessary critical eye.
Right now, climate change seems to be one issue that’s regained a good amount of its pre-pandemic exposure, helped by the momentum towards a ‘green recovery’.
There are suggestions that Covid-19 could ‘finish off’ the coal industry. Renewable power is on its way up, with moves from wind to solar a major shift over the past decade. Carbon capture is getting more attention from sectors with money power. Speaking of which: Amazon, which has been under pressure to cut its emissions, has said it’s going to fund climate technologies (MIT Tech Review + Bloomberg).
But concrete signs of change have been missing for a long time, and the warnings are mounting. Although greenhouse gas emissions plunged during complete lockdown, carbon dioxide levels already in the air have reached record highs.
The head of the International Energy Agency has said we have six months to prevent a return to pre-pandemic emissions; he was speaking on the recent release of the IEA’s major report on the energy sector (covered from the perspective of India here, by colleague Lou del Bello).
There’s some not-so-good news on mitigation: planting new forests can do more harm than good (BBC + Bloomberg), according to evidence from Chile—a conclusion that follows a slow trickle of cautions over the months about simplistic messages over tree planting as a solution. In a similar vein, 'carbon farming' may be more about feel-good vibes than real potential.
But here’s an idea: spreading green sand—that’s a volcanic mineral called olivine—could capture billions of tons of carbon dioxide. Potentially.
Meanwhile, the risk is clear and present. There's a record-breaking heatwave in Siberia. Scientists say that worst-case global heating scenarios may need to be revised up in light of a better understanding of the role of clouds. More extreme waves are expected to bring stronger coastal damage as the planet warms.
Research suggesting that small islands may not disappear under rising seas sounds like good news. But I’m thinking that if the prospect of nations not disappearing is good news, that’s a pretty revealing measure of where we’re at.
The benchmark is low.
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While we’re on climate change—check out these reports on racial injustice:
How climate change links with racism and discrimination - NYT + Correspondent + Yale E360
New research ties climate change to pregnancy risks, which affect Black mothers more - NYT
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#2—Health beyond Covid-19
Other diseases haven’t gone away—and the pandemic may well worsen their impact. This note of caution has been with us from the start of the crisis and it’s persisting, if not getting stronger.
In some cases, efforts to slow down the spread of Covid-19 are opening the door to spread of other diseases (NYT + Vox). Dengue is one example: Singapore’s worst outbreak of the disease in years is reportedly linked to lockdown measures. Scientists are estimating a “devastating” increase in maternal and child deaths globally. Malaria may still cause more deaths than the coronavirus this year.
And then, of course, there’s how chronic diseases fuel the pandemic by increasing how vulnerable people are to dying from the virus—leading to calls for more attention to address those underlying conditions.
Researchers looking to do something about all this are developing a tool to estimate the health impact of coronavirus beyond coronavirus. And thousands of citizens have a chance to help scientists track the long-term health effects—physical, mental, and social.
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#3—Humanitarian shake-up
There’s now a higher risk of violent conflict (Telegraph + Economist). And that’s against a backdrop of sea-change in the humanitarian sector likely to result from the pandemic, outlined in an analysis by Heba Aly, director of the New Humanitarian.
One additional change in the sector could be boundaries between humanitarian and development disappearing for good.
In the meantime, although Covid-19 has taken a heavy toll on migrants’ remittances to their families, some policy experts strike a hopeful note that the positive measures taken to deal with the pandemic could pave the way for a more humane approach to migration. And that’s probably the most optimistic angle I’ve seen on migration in quite some time.
Pandemic fallout—and futures—in other headlines
Millions of girls around the world may not go back to school - Washington Post
Covid-19 has led to a flood of plastic pollution - Economist
How architecture is going to change - New Yorker
...and how cities are changing - Bloomberg CityLab
Rethinking the hospital before the next pandemic - WSJ
How British scientists made the best of lockdown silence - Guardian
From my Network
It’s Week 2 of Global Health Film Classics, an online film series you can find out more about here and in last week’s post.
This Sunday’s film, Survivors, chronicles the remarkable stories of three Sierra Leoneans during what is now widely regarded as the most acute public health crisis of the modern era.
Learn more and get your tickets here.
…and a final note from the week’s soundtrack
Worldwise is written by Anita Makri. Was this email forwarded to you? Learn more and subscribe here.