What happens when resilience is in short supply
Economic shocks are just part of the pandemic story.
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The Worldwise View
Each one of us will have a story (or two, or three) of how work and life has been upended in the past few months.
How well we pull through and rebound from a shock like this one has a lot to do with the resources we can draw from—things like the help we get from our governments, the nature of our jobs, the health of our social networks, the power we have over decisions.
If you take that picture and stretch it up to the national level, you’ll see the absence of those kinds of resources reflected in reports of the fallout from Covid-19.
Back in April I called this crisis the Great Revealer. That was a time of trying to get to grips with the impacts. Now, we can also look at what happens when resilience is in short supply—in this post I focus on the Global South as a whole and by region.
It starts with money.
Big hit, little aid
We’ve seen several warnings of the economic trouble facing poor countries without financial aid—this recent one by the UN came just as G20 finance ministers were preparing to meet earlier this month.
There are analyses of those economic impacts (CGD + UNU Wider). And there are stories of how they link up with the global economy: poor nations being excluded from global value chains, for example, or how the garment industry is being destroyed (though to say it's “the path out of poverty” is going a bit too far).
It’s not just about what happens within borders. Adding to previous warnings of the drop in migrants’ remittances to their families, a recent report highlights the case of Bangladeshi workers abroad—one of the world’s largest emigrant populations—and the economic knock-on effect on their families back home.
Lockdowns have shrunk the global informal economy by 80%—food became a problem for millions of people overnight, scholar Marty Chen pointed out on a webinar hosted by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) this month.
Policy experts have argued that being sceptical about lockdowns isn’t about taking a neoliberal political stance, it’s about protecting the world's poor: “The wealthy might profit from the economy, but the poor live by it”.
But despite the soaring needs, this week AP reports that international aid commitments from top donors has dropped to $16.9 billion, down from $23.9 billion in the same period last year.
Snapshots by region
In Africa, the economic hit is serious (IMF + Economist) and the prospect of recovery not good.
Among the vital sectors affected are travel and tourism. Tourism is hit hard across the continent, with an estimated loss of nearly $55 billion in revenues over three months.
And as the economy suffers, social problems mount. More than 40,000 people across East Africa, mainly Somalia, have been forcibly evicted from their homes since the pandemic began.
Numerous reports of violence against women and girls have prompted Kenya’s government to order a probe into the rise in these incidents. In neighbouring Uganda, people with disabilities have been harassed, trapped and even shot at under lockdown.
This is the story of Rendani Sirwali, an informal market trader in South Africa and the breadwinner in a family of four, who can’t afford a loaf of bread as a result of the crisis.
In South Asia, recent reports focus on the social fallout.
UNICEF sees a bleak future for kids in the region. There are strong impacts for other vulnerable groups too.
In India, surveys show that for women the pandemic means fewer working hours, higher stress and a drop in income. And there’s a surge in unsafe abortion in the country. Here you can read first-hand accounts from women about life under lockdown.
Author Arundhati Roy has said Indian Muslims have faced a genocidal climate during the pandemic. Caste atrocities in Tamil Nadu have increased nearly fivefold. People who live in areas that border China have been targeted for their East Asian looks, suffering discrimination fuelled by the pandemic.
The country’s lockdown has also paved the way for a rise in illegal logging and timber-smuggling in Kashmir, as guards are unable to patrol and local incomes plummet.
Across the border, Pakistan is reportedly using the pandemic as a pretext to ramp up surveillance. The Economist reports that governments across Asia have used Covid-19 to justify a crackdown on journalists that was already under way.
In Quotes
"To paint an entire community as “corona jihadis” during this pandemic, when there is a pre-existing atmosphere of violence against Muslims, is to create a genocidal climate." — Arundhati Roy, in an interview with Open Democracy criticising India's response to the pandemic
Latin America is at the centre of concerns over a looming hunger crisis (WFP on Medium + VOA).
It comes with fears that the pandemic hit could reverse decades of economic and social progress.
Some of the specific impacts picked up by the media mirror those reported for other regions. There’s evidence of soaring violence against women during the pandemic and widening gaps in education where not all students are affected equally.
In Brazil, an entire generation of indigenous leaders is at risk of being lost. In Mexico, austerity measures have slashed the country's national park service budget, raising the risk of illegal logging. In Peru, Covid-19 has put internal migration into reverse, away from the capital Lima. In Venezuela, people who rely on money sent from abroad are suffering as remittances plunge.
Finally, the few reports emerging from the Middle East and North Africa highlight conflict and migration as the backdrop for pandemic consequences.
In Yemen, migrants have become a target for blame and abuse during the pandemic. Thousands have fled Covid-19 hotspots as misinformation and stigma take hold.
The economy is of course not spared here either. Syria is being pushed to the brink of socio-economic collapse. In Iraq, there’s a worry over flared tensions as dwindling supplies of safe water add to lower oil prices and a coronavirus-driven economic downturn.
I wish I could bring you something other than this gloomy picture. But optimism will return—in a future post.
A final note from the week’s soundtrack
Worldwise is written by Anita Makri.
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