A post-COVID picture is emerging
It looks lopsided.
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The Worldwise View
Just like the pandemic hit, recovery won't be created equal.
The UK is now the first country to authorise use of a coronavirus vaccine, after a handful of candidates produced promising results over the past two weeks or so.
It’s a big shift, and a key moment. Countries that have managed to secure plentiful supplies of vaccine can see some light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. For the first time in about a year, it’s possible to envisage the rebuilding of livelihoods and economies.
The light is fainter, and more distant, for those in less affluent parts of the world who will have to wait—perhaps for a long time—for the vaccine supply to reach their neck of the woods.
And that’s the first sign of a post-COVID picture that carries a single hallmark: inequality.
The pandemic has added weight to scales that were already tipped. Some have risen, others have sunk farther down. The vaccine supply is only a small part of that picture.
It’s now easier to see how the majority of people in richer countries will slowly get back on their feet, while those in poorer ones live in a post-COVID world that continues to be suppressed by the virus.
Suppressed in different ways in different places, but the signs are there for multiple pressure points: a harsh economic setback; hunger or famine; other diseases rising; kids missing out on education; violence against women; human rights violations. And in several of these places, the stress will overlap with the impacts of climate change, water scarcity, conflict.
If resilience is in short supply, it’s harder to get back on your feet.
Inequality—it’s easy to switch off at the sound of it. What to do about inequality? A somewhat abstract notion and everpresent, in a multitude of versions. A perennial problem. Resistant to technological fixes and shiny-silver bullets.
It’s tempting to think that there’s nothing to do for a problem that will always be there.
But flip the coin—and then it means there’s always something to do about it.
Some signals of post-pandemic inequality
The disparity between places and populations that are in a position to move towards a recovery, and those who aren’t, is getting more visible in various measures beyond economic impact.
Humanitarian need: The “bleakest and darkest year” lies ahead—235 million people will need humanitarian aid next year, a rise of 40% on 2020, the UN said this week (Reuters + Economist + Devex). About four in five of these, some 160 million, live in Africa and the Middle East. The rise is mainly down to the pandemic and its economic impacts on vulnerable people. But alongside this growing need, there’s a shortfall in aid.
Poverty: From April to October—that’s just six months—the number of people classified as ‘poor’ has more than doubled from around 62 million people to 131 million, according to World Bank estimates. It's also undermining the global initiative meant to fight it, the Sustainable Development Goals. Millions have little access to economic support and protection services.
A toll on women: I’ve laid this out before—the violence, and more reports of violence, especially for refugee women (UNHCR + Telegraph); soaring rates of child marriage and pregnancy; a hit on mental health; poor access to health services, including contraception. Inequalities and scars that can last a lifetime.
Inching towards famine: This featured in the week’s roundup—we’ve seen regular warnings over the past few months, and UN officials say they’re becoming a reality. The World Food Programme estimates that 690 million people don’t have enough to eat, and 130 million more are at risk of being pushed into starvation by year’s end.
Familiar diseases: Overshadowed by COVID, but far from gone—there’s the trio of HIV, malaria and TB, as well as polio and measles, plus neglected tropical diseases. Pandemic disruption in immunisation and other health services is adding up to a bleak prospect for these conditions (UN News + Economist). The global health setbacks are ‘historic’, according to the Gates Foundation.
Education, interrupted: A slowly moving emergency—children in 108 countries are missing the equivalent of one quarter of a regular school year, according to UNICEF. Inequalities are growing as remote learning isn’t reaching a third of children, with long-term consequences on their health and development.
A final note from the week’s soundtrack 🌎
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