How this 'wave' is like the sea
A look at where Covid-19 is surging and re-surging.
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It’s less a single travelling wave on a graph and more a flow that surges in some places and fizzles out in others—a bit like waves crashing against the shore.
I’m still at my desk, and still observing the pandemic, if you’re wondering—let me explain.
Just over a month ago I wrote about the Covid-19 hotspots that were emerging, all in the Global South, following pandemic peaks in East Asia and Europe. A couple of weeks later, there was news that spread was accelerating in Africa.
The trends were reflected in coverage by major outlets around that time (Axios + NYT + WaPo + AP). And it’s now clearer that Latin America and South Asia are the new global hotspots—but the picture is slightly different too.
In a nutshell: South Asia is rising the ranks as cases surge in India; numbers in Brazil and across Latin America stay high; and spread of the virus keeps accelerating on the African continent, led by South Africa.
Read on for the details by region.
But where waves have already fallen, new ones are forming. In mid-June, Beijing had to go back into lockdown after seeing a resurgence (CNN + WSJ + Reuters + Economist). The same goes with parts of South Korea and Australia.
It's the most populous countries—US, Brazil, India—that are finding it hardest to contain the virus. Those population numbers, not testing, are also behind recent surges in confirmed cases.
Still, the risk isn’t confined to those countries. The WHO has warned of a new and dangerous phase in this pandemic as new surges build up while large waves keep going (WaPo + NYT). It also spoke of a real risk of a second wave as economies reopen.
It speaks of a single Wave, but that’s made up of several smaller ones at different stages. Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening across the developing-world hotspots.
India leads South Asia surge
Reports of a fast rise in infections in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan emerged in early June (Economist + Axios + VOA), around the time the New York Times reported the countries were ending lockdowns to restart their economies. Much of the coverage has since focused on India.
The country’s case numbers are now third in the world, behind the US and Brazil (Reuters + Axios). We’ve seen record spikes more than once (Axios + NPR + Guardian) and suggestions the virus is spreading from cities to rural areas.
Even Kerala, hailed as a success story back in May, had to go back into lockdown. In the northeast, Assam state faces the ‘twin disasters’ of floods and the pandemic.
A research paper produced from within the Health Ministry predicted India’s pandemic wave will end by September, and was taken apart in this report.
Things are less clear on the death toll. It’s officially low, but there are claims that’s misleading and that the country’s case-fatality rate is actually the highest in South Asia. There’s puzzling evidence that more women than men are dying of Covid-19, contrary to observations from the rest of the world.
Capacity for testing needs to be ramped up 10-fold, and the country’s healthcare system is buckling under the pressure. Two different stories profile pregnant women struggling to get care (NYT + Open Democracy). The BBC reports that Covid-19 drugs are being traded on Delhi’s black market. Is all this an argument for mobilising informal health providers?
Meanwhile, the Indian Academy of Sciences calls its government's timeline for rolling out a home-grown vaccine “unreasonable and without precedent”.
Elsewhere in South Asia
A black market for blood plasma has emerged in Pakistan - Guardian
Women are the missing patients in Afghanistan - New Humanitarian
Cases and deaths rise among Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, while testing is low - Devex
…and an Internet ban sparks rumours in the camp - Guardian
Latin America still in the eye of the storm
Coverage of this region tends to focus on Brazil, and that’s understandable. As the Washington Post puts it, Brazil is unique in having completely failed to put any measures in place while it suffers hundreds of thousands of cases and deaths. It’s also a major economy—never hurts the spotlight.
Analyses of the deepening crisis paint a picture of the rising wave of infections and politics intersecting, with people in favelas hard-hit (WaPo + Guardian).
Meanwhile, cases in Rio’s favelas are under-reported, and Brazilians of African heritage are falling under the radar. Reports continue of cases multiplying among indigenous tribes in the Amazon.
Let’s zoom out to the rest of the region.
In mid-to-late June, almost half the deaths reported worldwide were in Latin America, which also accounted for more than a third of new infections. Deaths are predicted to soar by October (Reuters + Telegraph). Not a good time for the Pan American Health Organization to be facing a financial crisis.
This is a good analysis of what’s driving the numbers, beyond Bolsonaro's politics. The Economist’s assessment is that the region opened back up before it was ready. Plus, its populist leaders aren't good for pandemic response.
Back to individual countries: Peru has also been getting attention by international media over the weeks. Two recent reports looked at how inequality and corruption have undermined the government's prompt response (NYT + Devex). A shortage of oxygen for therapy has opened up a black market. And here’s a flavour of grassroots response: one of the country’s biggest LGBTQ nightclubs has reopened as a grocery store to help people though the crisis.
Coverage of Chile has delved into how the country ended up with one of the world’s highest infection rates despite good preparedness. Among the reasons: inequality, and lifting restrictions early.
Elsewhere in Latin America
Reports of mass graves in Ecuador turned out to be fake news. This doesn't mean the country isn't struggling to deal with coronavirus - France24
Getting the data in is a challenge in Venezuela - New Humanitarian
Bolivia is struggling to maintain gains of early lockdown - Guardian
Coronavirus cases found in sprawling migrant camp at U.S. border in Mexico - Reuters
Signs of slow build-up across Africa
Announcing that over 500,000 cases of Covid-19 have now been recorded on the African continent, the WHO stated the following in a July 9 press release:
“With more than a third of countries in Africa doubling their cases over the past month, the threat of COVID-19 overwhelming fragile health systems on the continent is escalating."
The tone is more urgent than that of official briefings so far. Some reports suggest there’s a silent epidemic fuelled by a lack of data and not enough testing. A report that mass deaths were hidden in Nigeria's Kano state isn’t reassuring. But as I mentioned in a previous post, WHO’s view has been that a real surge in serious cases couldn’t have stayed hidden.
Meanwhile, a shortage of health workers worsens across the continent as staff demand more protection (WaPo + Reuters + Bhekisisa). In a positive move, African countries have united to create an online 'one-stop shop' to lower the cost of tests and PPE.
South Africa has been the worst-affected country, and its cases have doubled over the past two weeks. By several accounts, it’s not handling things that well—leaving thousands of quarantine hotels empty, failing to protect vulnerable people, even neglecting its public transport system.
Elsewhere in Africa
Madagascar's capital goes back into lockdown as cases surge - CNN
Kenya goes for phased reopening - Reuters
Refugees from the DRC test positive in Uganda - VOA
Covid-19 cases mount in Timbuktu - AP
One last thing
The Middle East isn’t spared from the surge (or resurge). The Economist says it’s under a second wave. According to the WHO, cases are rising in the Eastern Mediterranean, from Morocco across to Pakistan. Iran, for one, is still seeing large increases in cases after months of battling the virus.
Meanwhile, the bleak reports keep coming from war-torn counties in the region. The UN has said the pandemic has increased dramatically the number of Syrians in need of aid. After a doctor contracted the virus in Idlib, his hospital had to close.
Finally, just two quotes about the situation in Yemen.
“COVID-19 has made the health system's collapse complete” - MSF
"People are falling down, one by one, like dominoes”: a Yemeni doctor's diary from western Aden, a southern port city hit hard by the virus - New Humanitarian
Worldwise is written by Anita Makri. Was this email forwarded to you? Learn more and subscribe here.