Extreme weather almost everywhere
El Niño and climate change meet an action deficit 🌐
WorldWise readers—
Away from the spotlight on war and upheaval, another important story is unfolding. Extreme weather is reaching a seasonal crescendo that’s so striking and omnipresent, it ended up becoming the focus of this entire post.
The devastation it’s causing doesn’t (yet) force the kind of urgent media discourse that has the potential to shift global policy. That might have something to do with where it’s occurring.
Anita
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The intensity is evident.
Since I began to track global news for this newsletter, I doubt a single week has gone by—certainly not a single month—without some reports of weather extremes and the damage they cause. If not scientifically attributed to climate change, they tend to be linked with the risks we know are growing due to global warming.
But over this past month or so I’ve been struck by the volume of these reports, and also by their scale—not only in terms of intensity, but the disruption and cost to society that comes with them.
Sweltering heat across three continents, deadly floods in Brazil, intense droughts in South America and Africa—here’s a roundup of what’s been going on, before concluding with a few big-picture observations.
HEAT EXTREMES | Parts of South and East Asia are facing unusually scorching weather as El Niño pushes temperatures up during the hottest months of the year, endangering health and disrupting daily life. Monthly and all-time temperature records have been broken repeatedly in recent weeks across several countries. Thousands of schools have closed in The Philippines and Bangladesh. People are forced to stay away from work. Agricultural production and food storage has been disrupted. Dozens of heatstrokes have been recorded across the affected countries.
Scorching heat is also affecting many Latin American and African countries. Parts of Bolivia, Brazil and Mexico have seen record-high temperatures in recent days and weeks. In Africa, sweltering heat is being reported from parts of Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. This follows a heatwave across West Africa in March—a once-in-a-200-year event that scientists have linked to climate change—and record-high temperatures across the continent in February. In March, heat-related school closures across South Sudan affected 2.2 million children.
[Sources: The Guardian + Axios + The New York Times + Euronews + Global Voices + AP + Buenos Aires Times + The New York Times + BBC + Al Jazeera + The Economist + AP]
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FLOODS & HEAVY RAIN | At least 83 people have died as Rio Grande do Sul, one of Brazil’s most prosperous states, fights unusually intense flooding that’s shaken up the country, report Terrence McCoy and Marina Dias in the Washington Post:
“With more than half the cities in the state dealing with floodwaters and 20,000 people left homeless, Rio Grande do Sul hasn’t been just damaged. It has been crippled. “This is the worst disaster ever registered in the state of Rio Grande do Sul,” Gov. Eduardo Leite said. “Perhaps one of the worst disasters that the country has registered in recent history.”
The floods have displaced more than 115,000 people and caused landslides, washed-out roads, collapsed bridges, and cuts in electricity, water and communications services. Images by Anselmo Cunha and Carlos Fabal for AFP give a glimpse of the devastation. In some cities, water levels were at their highest since records began nearly 150 years ago, according to the Brazilian Geological Service.
In East Africa, heavy rains and severe flooding have claimed over 350 lives since March, with Kenya and Tanzania bracing for more rainfall as Cyclone Hidaya makes landfall. Tens of thousands of refugees have been displaced once again in recent weeks because of rising water levels in Somalia, Tanzania and Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camp.
For Kenya, the floods are the most catastrophic in years. An overflowing river submerged several camps in the Masaai Mara, leading to the evacuation of dozens of tourists from the popular national reserve. More than 40 people were killed after a hydroelectric dam burst in the southern town of Mai Mahiu. Hundreds of thousands of Kenyans have already been displaced, and the government ordered residents near 178 dams and water reservoirs in 33 counties to be evacuated in preparation for Cyclone Hidaya.
A number of reports by Al Jazeera document the toll of recent rainstorms in Asia, particularly in Pakistan and Afghanistan. At least 50 people were reported dead in each country on the same day in mid-April, while hundreds of houses were destroyed.
[Sources: WaPo + Al Jazeera + NPR + Al Jazeera/AFP + Guardian + UN + Al Jazeera + Africanews + Al Jazeera + DW + Al Jazeera + Al Jazeera + Al Jazeera + Al Jazeera]
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DROUGHT & WATER STRESS | Several parts of South America are suffering from a severe drought that’s disrupting daily life, which climate experts say is linked with the El Niño weather pattern. In Colombia, water reservoirs that supply Bogota with tap water have dropped to their lowest point in decades after months of dry weather since November. Officials have been forced to ration water, with restrictions including 4-minute showers and a limit to washing laundry across the city of 8 million people. The drought has prompted Colombia to also cut the export of electricity to neighbouring Ecuador, which declared a state of emergency and began to ration electricity in mid-April.
Drought in Mexico is causing a different problem. Armando Solis and AP are reporting that subsistence farmers are attacking avocado orchards and berry fields of commercial farms, angry that the water-thirsty crops—combined with the lack of rainfall—are drying up rivers and lakes west of Mexico City:
“A potential conflict looms with avocado growers — who are often sponsored by, or pay protection money to, drug cartels. Last week, dozens of residents, farmworkers and small-scale farmers from Villa Madero hiked up into the hills to tear out irrigation equipment using mountain springs to water avocado orchards carved out of the pine-covered hills.”
In southern Africa, drought intensified by El Niño is damaging crops, killing livestock and sending food prices soaring. As many as 50 million people are facing food insecurity as the harvest write-off means food scarcity until well into 2025.
[Sources: NPR + BBC + AP + Al Jazeera + Reuters + New York Times + RFI]
As I write this, the media reports keep coming. But let’s step back to look at the bigger picture—some observations.
#1—This is a taste of things to come: El Niño is pushing weather patterns further to the extreme this year, but climate change is what’s raising the baseline, edging us closer to those extremes to begin with. Scientists point to record-high global temperatures for the past 11 months, and record-high ocean temperatures for the past 13 months. And “more extremes in more places are overlapping”, according to climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe. The combined effect with short-term weather patterns gives a taste of what to expect more of in the near future.
#2—Adaptation and response are missing in action: We need more focus on what’s not being done to become resilient to the changes already underway. Much of the world’s existing infrastructure was designed for climatic conditions that are fast becoming out of date. In many cases the response is inadequate too. In Kenya, for instance, Human Rights Watch is accusing authorities of misappropriating funds earmarked to prepare the country for the high risk of rainfall that meteorologists warned about earlier this year; and TIME magazine reports that Kenyans who failed to evacuate by deadline are having their houses bulldozed and offered $75 to relocate. The deficit of global action can be used to justify a deficit in local action.
#3—A snap to attention can be useful: If weather extremes grab attention, that has its benefits. One reason holding back urgent action on climate change is that the risk is largely invisible. A second problem is that the risk also comes in slow motion, too slow to allow an easy link between cause and effect: in a thought-provoking piece for Atmos, Dave Levitan puts his finger on this “time paradox” in an attempt to make sense of why the world is not yet alarmed:
“The failure to address the world’s most existential risk is at root a temporal problem. Virtually none of the timelines—of emissions, of impacts, of solutions—line up in ways that society can effectively manage. Things take too long or deliver delayed impacts. The cause-and-effect of it all is stretched thin, too thin for a species so locked into our daily existence.”
#4—Proximity matters, as does the toll of the disruption: It’s a different story if you live close to a dam bursting at the seams, a city block without aircon, a plot of land too parched to grow food. Then you take note. As long as people touched by weather extremes are left to fend for themselves for days or even weeks, emotional overwhelm is bound to follow. Social work lecturer Tsogololathu Itaye writes for The Mail & Guardian about volunteering as part of the response to Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Malawi last March, where—with flooding still underway—20-minute sessions is all that could be offered, only to some. The toll on mental health from disrupted lives and ‘eco-anxiety’ is now starting to gain visibility among scientists.
The lucky ones among us can still afford not to feel the disruption, or even to notice. It won’t last long. Whether we know it or not, we’re all edging closer to finding out how climate change shows up in our own little patch. Chances are, extreme weather is coming soon to a town near you.
BRIEFING | around the world
News highlights
More research is emerging about the health risks of exposure to extreme heat. A new study found stroke deaths increasing in recent years, linked to extreme temperatures around the world, Jen Christensen reports for CNN. Research from India shows that women working in conditions that expose them to high heat levels are more than twice as likely to experience serious problems with their pregnancy, including miscarriage, stillbirth, and low birth weight, Katherine Davison reports for Devex. Research in Singapore points to a risk of low sperm count for young men exposed to temperatures above 30 degrees, Sarah Newey reports in the Telegraph, a finding which raises concerns that global warming could hit fertility rates around the world. Uber drivers in Nigeria are suffering from heat-related illnesses, write Kimberly Mutandiro and Rahma Jimoh for Rest of World, pointing to a growing risk and limited options to do anything about it for people who work outdoors.
The spread of “climate-sensitive” dengue fever continues in South America, with some concerns raised about potential spread to other parts of the world. After a flurry of reports from Brazil in March, the spotlight turned to Peru, where according to Reuters the number of deaths caused by the mosquito-borne virus more than tripled by April this year compared with the same period of 2023. More recent reports are coming from Argentina, where the number of cases is five times higher than the same period of last year, Juan Bustamante and Lucila Sigal report for Reuters. Residents are facing a shortage of insect repellent, writes Ione Wells for BBC, and the government’s decision not to procure vaccines fell under scrutiny, reports Sylvia Colombo for The Guardian. Paraguay and Uruguay are also hard hit, in what the Pan-American Health Organization is calling potentially the region’s worst-ever dengue season, writes Marion Giraldo for Reuters. In late April, Euronews reported that health authorities in France warned of a risk that dengue cases from the Americas may be imported ahead of the Olympics. The Economist flagged a global surge in deaths since 2000, calling for action to curb spread of the disease.
Views of note
“Extreme heat, far less visually dramatic than hurricanes or floods, is claiming lives and livelihoods with a stealth that belies its impact. Climate change is dramatically increasing the probability that we will see a mass fatality extreme heat disaster soon.”
👤 Extreme heat is the silent assassin of climate change - Jagan Chapagain for Al Jazeera
“Dengue is one of the most "climate-sensitive" diseases. The few cases of dengue in Europe and the United States have made headlines, but those of us living in dengue-endemic countries have been dealing with this for decades.”
👤 Why nations need to prepare for climate-fueled dengue - Neelika Malavige for Think Global Health
Under the radar
“The Khartoum Bahri Emergency Room reported a significant rise in suspected dengue fever cases, nearing 1,000, on Sunday, [where] the healthcare system in Sudan is facing immense challenges due to the closure of up to 80% of hospitals in conflict zones.”
🔗 Dengue fever cases surge in Khartoum Bahri amid healthcare shortage - Sudan Tribune
Seeking Solutions
“Cows, here and across much of Africa, have been the most important animal for eons — the foundation of economies, diets, traditions. But now grazable land is shrinking. Water sources are drying up. A three-year drought in the Horn of Africa that ended last year killed 80 percent of the cows in this part of Kenya and shattered the livelihoods of so many people. In this region with the thinnest of margins, millions are being forced to adapt to climate change — including those who were now drawing numbers from a hat, each corresponding to one of the 77 camels that had just arrived in Samburu County.”
🔗 In Kenya, drought-tolerant camels replace cows for herders - Chico Harlan and Rael Ombuor for The Washington Post
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