Covid-19: puzzles and waves, revisited
Here's what the global picture looks like right now.
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The Worldwise View
The wider the spread of this virus, the easier it is to lose sight of the global picture.
Seeing that picture seemed simpler back when spread was contained to a couple of regions, even as so much about the workings of Covid-19 was shrouded in uncertainty.
I’ve made the analogy of a puzzle before, and I’m afraid I’m going to do it again (I was never even that much into puzzles).
It now feels like trying to put together a more complicated and ever-changing picture with even smaller pieces: localised trends that look different individually but somehow add up to this Global Pandemic.
Those pieces are scattered across the media, and in this post I’m going to pull together a selection to give us a sense of what the scene looks like at this point. (That means I’m looking at salient trends rather than the details of particular regions.)
The focus is on the developing world—read on for trends by region.
But let’s start with a word about the global backdrop.
There are now over 18 million cases of Covid-19 and about 690,000 deaths reported worldwide. The US, Brazil and India are still in the lead on confirmed case numbers (WaPo + NYT + WHO).
Although things have been quieting down on the European front and in parts of Southeast Asia for some weeks, there are now ramblings of a so-called second wave in Australia, Japan, Hong Kong and in parts of Europe (WaPo + WaPo + Economist + Economist + WSJ).
Why ‘so-called’ second wave? Well, pandemic waves aren’t as simple as they seem. David Hunter, epidemiology and medicine expert at the University of Oxford, calls them tides. My mental image, explained in this mid-July post, looked more like the sea—but you get the idea.
"There’s no universally accepted definition of waves. Some people say it’s not the best analogy and that we might talk about tides coming in and out instead." — David Hunter, epidemiology and medicine expert at the University of Oxford, quoted in this Huffington Post article by Natasha Hinde.
LATIN AMERICA: soaring cases, violence and vulnerability
The latest tally puts the number of infections at five million—making Latin America the world’s hardest-hit region, accounting for 30% of cases worldwide.
New infections continued to rise in Brazil through July. The country’s Black and ethnic minorities have a higher risk of catching the virus and dying from it, according to an article that argues this can be explained in part by environmental factors.
Indigenous people are, as we know from previous reports, among the most vulnerable groups. The UN has expressed concern about the rise in cases among communities in the Amazon. Health workers short on protective equipment and testing capacity may have played a role in spreading the virus to some of these communities. A recent report suggests the coronavirus has reached the western Amazon's Javari Valley, home to the world's remaining uncontacted indigenous groups.
In early July President Jair Bolsonaro vetoed Covid-19 protections in proposed legislation to protect indigenous groups. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights later asked Brazil's government to outline protections, reportedly issuing a 15-day deadline for a response.
The problems are, of course, not confined to Brazil.
Having emerged a while ago as a hotspot under the radar (Axios + WaPo), Mexico has suffered from a lack of data transparency that makes it difficult to get a handle of how serious the crisis actually is (CJR + Mexico News Daily).
Reports on the consequences of the pandemic reflect patterns seen in other developing countries. One is gender-based violence: the number of women seeking help almost doubled while Mexico was under lockdown. Another is food security, where poor people are caught between the risk of catching the virus or going hungry.
The media spotlight is also falling on Colombia. While cases are surging, armed groups are using deadly violence on those who breach lockdowns, using the crisis to consolidate their presence (Guardian + WaPo).
Recent reports about Argentina focus on the fallout of soaring child poverty as the economy takes a serious hit. And unsurprisingly, it’s women who shoulder the burden of supporting communities vulnerable to the virus.
Venezuela is also seeing a surge in cases, and the government blames returning refugees. In Bolivia, hospitals are overwhelmed.
ASIA: tales of success, failure and cover-up
There’s one notable piece of news in this region: Central Asian countries are finally admitting they have a Covid problem.
But the region’s hotspot is India, currently ranked third in global case numbers. The country got back into lockdown mode in early-mid July in an attempt to stem spread of the virus, the ongoing rise in cases reportedly fuelled by spread in rural areas.
A report in the Wall Street Journal suggests Pakistan is faring better, having cut down cases and deaths by 80% in the past two months.
Over in Bangladesh, one hospital caused something of an international incident by issuing fake certificates of Covid-free status. Some infected patients holding them then tested positive while trying to enter Italy. The hospital owner was eventually arrested while trying to flee the country in a burqa (Guardian + Telegraph).
Surreal tales aside, the real story for many is one of struggling to cope with the financial hit of having to stay away from work due to flooding, while orders to garment factories dry up during the economic slowdown.
VISUAL | The work of Delhi's waste pickers doesn't stop, and now pandemic-related medical waste is adding to the risks they face - Reuters Visual Image
Over in Southeast Asia, the spotlight is falling on the Philippines where the latest news is that lockdown has been reinstated in and around the capital Manila. With the country’s healthcare system struggling, the health department has announced plans to update its health strategy. Meanwhile, President Rodrigo Duterte has reportedly turned to his drug war tactics to fight the pandemic.
Thailand has done well to keep its numbers low, and what accounts for that is a bit of a mystery. In mid-July it acted fast to change entry rules for visitors after new cases sparked fears of a second wave. It’s also focusing on the mental health impacts of the restrictions that played a part in its success.
AFRICA: a rising trend, multiple trajectories, serious fallout
The African continent is near the one-million mark in its Covid-19 cases as the pandemic surges in hotspot countries, South Africa in particular. And as the virus spreads, health workers aren’t spared.
About 1800 cases have been reported in seven countries among displaced people or in areas affected by humanitarian crises—and that’s almost certainly an underestimate, according to the WHO’s Africa office, which cites limited detection and testing capacity.
For these and other reasons, such as the lack of reliable data on causes of death, the Economist says the true extent of the damage on the continent will probably never be known.
Neither can it be represented by an overall ‘African’ picture, as noted in this Worldwise post back in June and reinforced in this infographic by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, which writes: "There is not a single African COVID-19 trajectory, but rather multiple, distinct risk profiles."
South Africa, for example, accounts for more than half the infections on the continent. Its cases are rising and the response is failing. Johannesburg is hit particularly hard.
In Nigeria, it’s hard to speak of an overall trend: numbers can be unreliable, severe outbreaks localised, and politics gets in the way of the response. While the country’s epidemiologists are working to stem the spread, part of the problem is that people see Covid-19 as just one of many problems in day-to-day life, according to Chikwe Ihekweazu, director of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
And in Sudan, the fallout from the pandemic is as serious as the threat of the virus. Ten million people are facing food shortages due to lockdown restrictions and rising prices. Education is another key concern in South Sudan: two UN agencies are calling for schools to reopen, saying the damage to children forced to stay home outweighs the risk of catching the virus.
MENA: conflicts and hidden hotspots
There are conflicting reports on what’s happening in Yemen. Devex reports that as the virus spreads, people are staying away from hospitals. But a report by the Guardian on fears that cholera could be spreading silently during the crisis suggests clinics are overwhelmed by cases of Covid-19.
Soldiers in Israel have reportedly destroyed a Palestinian checkpoint that doubled as a coronavirus testing centre.
In Iran, a data leak has revealed a coverup of the true death toll, which is three times that officially reported, making the country the worst-hit in the Middle East.
This reminded me of an intriguing report by the New York Times in early July, which asked if parts of the Arab world are, in fact, unreported hotspots fuelled by spread of the virus among low-wage migrant workers.
For now, we’ll have to just leave that on the list of known unknowns.
Worldwise is written by Anita Makri.
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