A transitioning Arctic, COVID vulnerable + more
Your round-up from the Worldwise desk.
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The Worldwise View
We’re all ‘living with the virus’ in one way or another.
As we all adapt to new realities—some harsher than others—and try to get on with our lives, I get the sense that the world is reluctantly surrendering to the fact that we’re not going to get out of this pandemic any time soon.
New cases are surging in at least 73 countries. And the WHO’s chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan has now added her voice to those who try to manage expectations, saying we may no return to pre-Covid life until 2022.
I doubt anyone expects to go back to that particular ‘normal’—but you know what she means.
Catching up with Covid-19
Beyond local and regional discussions about how best to respond to the crisis, much of the global discourse now focuses on the prospect of a vaccine. We’ll look at the latest on that front in a moment.
First, a note about some new reports adding to what we know about the virus. It’s mainly about how it spreads: growing evidence that kids can pass it on to others; that you’re most likely to get infected by talking to people indoors; and that long-haul flights boost the chances of transmission. Last but not least, the extremely worrying indications that the rate of stillbirths has risen “dramatically” during the pandemic (Nature + NYT).
Vaccine and drug prospects
“The speed of progress is astonishing”, the Guardian’s Sarah Boseley says in this piece on the race to find a coronavirus vaccine.
In the absence of concrete developments, much of the recent coverage is looking ahead to questions around who would get it first—there’s been a lot of background work on that front, and access plans seem to be taking shape as the WHO announces a distribution plan (Nature + MIT Tech Review + ABC). That relies on the so-called COVAX allocation scheme, which the UK ended up joining on deadline day—but the US and China are still out. Not so widely reported is a caution that if a vaccine does materialise, there won’t be enough for everyone until 2024 (FT + Fox).
And because this is an issue that has been and will be tied up with politics, we’ve also had reports focusing on what China is doing on the vaccine front (reportedly with growing involvement by the military). It’s already quietly vaccinated more than 100,000 people before completing safety trials, Vox reports, though according to another source widespread vaccination won’t be starting until maybe November.
Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly has released promising first results for an antibody drug against the virus (Science + NYT + AP).
Vulnerable people
It’s a problem that’s been bubbling under the surface for a while, and now the WHO has finally gone ahead and pinned it down with a number: one in 7 reported Covid-19 infections globally is among health workers (Reuters + WaPo). The Washington Post explains that this makes it a figure disproportionately higher than the share of health workers in the population, which is less than 3% in most countries and less than 2% in almost all low- and middle-income countries.
Mexico stands out for having more deaths among its health staff than anywhere else. In India, there are accusations the government is keeping a high death toll under wraps, while the country’s response is suffering because of a staffing shortage (Devex + FT).
Over in Saudi Arabia, a different problem that we first signalled earlier this month: according to an Ethiopian official, the country is holding some 16,000 African migrants in one of its detention centers in an attempt to curb spread of the virus—and that is reportedly a conservative estimate.
Discrimination is real: the Red Cross found that about half of 5,000 respondents to a survey in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and Pakistan blamed a specific group for spreading the coronavirus, including migrants and foreigners. In Myanmar, Rakhine state is in the spotlight as the pandemic adds to the fears of people displaced in the civil war between the military and the rebel Arakan Army (Vice + Foreign Policy).
Vulnerable places
It’s hard to miss the Gates Foundation’s annual Goalkeepers report. More often than not, it trades on optimism—though this has been a bit more challenging of late.
Still, this year the report finds a way to sneak in a glass-half-full after acknowledging that as a result of the pandemic, "we’ve been set back about 25 years in about 25 weeks" on vaccine coverage and progress on the sustainable development goals has been wiped out (Reuters + Devex + Guardian + STAT).
But the economic damage shows how badly global development is needed, Bill Gates added, and the global goals remain the best framework we have to make that happen. That’s consistent with the dominant narrative—see this July post for more on that front.
Perhaps what Gates told New York magazine is closer to the glass-half-empty version: "You hope it doesn't stretch past 2022".
Here are a few snapshots of the fallout in Asia: small island states face a debt crisis as the pandemic adds to the climate change threat; the economy of the Asia-Pacific region more widely is to contract for the first time in 60 years; Indian street vendors face 'shattered' livelihoods.
The picture is more mixed for Africa, the one bright spot in the global pandemic story: while some reports highlight signs of economic recovery (China Daily + FT), others point to severe impacts on food supplies and agriculture in some countries (AllAfrica + Reuters).
Other stories that caught my eye
Study the role of hubris in nations’ COVID-19 response - Nature
The public response through a human rights lens—including restrictions to individual freedom - Conversation
Officials face health threats around the world - WaPo
Bleach touted as 'miracle cure' for Covid being sold on Amazon - Guardian
Beyond the pandemic
A selection of new problems or new versions of familiar problems, at times sounding biblical yet very real for millions of people.
Climate crisis rising
Last week it was about fire. This week it’s about ice.
According to multiple reports, the Arctic is transitioning. A new identity that’s not dominated by ice and snow is emerging (Scientific American + Yale E360 + Guardian). Meanwhile, two major Antarctic glaciers are tearing loose from their restraints, increasing the threat of rising seas.
Also widely covered was an Oxfam report that puts memorable numbers to the inequalities behind the cause of the problem: that the world's richest 1% are behind double the carbon dioxide emissions of the poorest 50% of the world’s population (Guardian + Reuters + Digital Journal).
Any report hinting at steps in the right direction, for example that big corporations are teaming up with startups to boost their 'green rethink', is quickly countered by another that has the opposite effect: that Brazil's soy frontier is growing at the fastest pace in four years. That, of course, matters for greenhouse gas emissions.
Let’s end on a hopeful note with this story: thousands of small-scale, illegal miners across South Africa make a living selling coal collected in abandoned mine shafts—but they're also part of a growing environmental movement campaigning for a shift to cleaner energy.
Flood, famine, disease
As the pandemic intersects with climate change and conflict, famine is threatening up to three dozen countries, and the UN’s World Food Programme is calling for help from rich countries (AP + ReliefWeb).
In the Nile basin, water and politics loom large. Against the backdrop of tense negotiations around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudan is facing the worst flooding in century, which has reportedly displaced one million people.
VISUAL | Worst-in-a-century floods inundate Sudan - WaPo
One last thing—you might have to add another name to your list of disease-carrying mosquitoes: Anopheles stephensi, a vector that scientists worry could spread malaria in African cities (Guardian + Science).
Other stories that caught my eye
Biggest funders of research for emerging infections are also biggest recipients - SciDev.Net
Brucellosis outbreak infects thousands after factory leak in China - CNN
Device to curb microplastic emissions wins award - Guardian
Hate speech on FB pushing Ethiopia towards genocide - VICE
Botswana opts to make land owners of wives with new law - Reuters
VISUAL | Why doing nothing is a radical act for India's women - Guardian
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