A pit stop in the pandemic marathon
There are twists and turns in the response.
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The Worldwise View
It’s starting to feel like a marathon, rather than a sprint.
Months after the pandemic-induced disruption began, the WHO is warning the crisis could get “worse and worse and worse”.
Hong Kong, Spain, Australia and the Philippines are among the places flighting a resurgence of Covid-19. While waves are at their crest in many parts of the Global South, medical experts are urging preparedness for a winter spike in the Global North, with concern at what might happen as flu season sets in.
But we’ve had some mileage. And we’ve learned a thing or two along the way. Let’s take a look at how key debates in the public health response are shaping up.
Consensus on face masks
To mask-up, or not to mask-up—that’s been the question since the early days of the pandemic. After months of panic-buying, shortages, controversies in the science and conflicting official advice on whether members of the public should wear them, there’s a growing consensus that they really do help (Axios + WSJ + Reuters).
A key turning point was the WHO’s formal recommendation in early June. In the UK, official advice was updated days after Venki Ramakrishnan, chief of the Royal Society, said refusal to wear a mask should be as taboo as drink-driving.
You can delve into the different types of coverings here, and an analysis of how the debate evolved here. Or have a look at how to combine style with function (Nat Geo + Vogue). Nigerian designers were on that groove early, back in March.
Crude lockdowns and testing
Apart from protecting the face and eyes, physical distancing is the other key measure to prevent spread of the virus. And blunt as it is, lockdown is still the main policy instrument to make that happen.
Some estimates suggest it may have prevented millions of infections and deaths in Europe and the US (MIT Tech Review + USA Today).
But are localised lockdowns, which seem to be emerging in some places from Australia to Rwanda, a sign of a more nuanced and complex response as resurgences appear? This earlier post has more detail on the idea, and on how targeting superspreaders carries hopes of ‘flattening the curve’.
We all know that many countries have struggled to scale up testing. Among the ideas on how to do better: an online marketplace, and pooling samples to test many people in one go.
Dive deeper into response policy
This analysis pinpoints what made both rich and poor countries vulnerable to a poor response - Chatham House
Rich countries adopted four 'layered' post-lockdown strategies. How feasible are they for developing countries? - CGD
Data from Google on behaviour under lockdown raise policy-relevant questions - Conversation
A proposal to integrate public health and economic models in order to set policy - Nature
Indigenous communities, already with high vulnerability, are being left out of focus in the response - Lancet
Democracies are managing better than authoritarian governments: they’re more innovative and adaptable - Chatham House
Eight lessons from 25 years of covering global health crises. They're not sexy, but maybe that's the point - New Humanitarian
Schools in limbo
Almost 10 million children may never return to school as a result of the pandemic. And UNESCO warns that international aid for education could drop by 12% due to Covid-related recession.
On the other hand, a large study in South Korea finds that older children spread the virus as much as adults do, suggesting that reopening schools will lead to new outbreaks.
The trade-offs aren’t easy to resolve. And the Economist delves into them with a series of recent articles—on why the risks of keeping schools closed outweigh the benefits, how pupils can make up for lost time, and the grave consequences of closing schools in poor countries.
Meanwhile, some evidence suggests reopening schools could be manageable: "A combination of keeping student groups small and requiring masks and some social distancing helps keep schools and communities safe, and that younger children rarely spread the virus to one another or bring it home", according to this report in Science magazine.
False start for digital tracing
New tech tends to give the feel-good vibe of an easy solution, and digital contact tracing was no exception. Many countries turned to the promise of apps for tracking down hidden coronavirus infections.
It didn’t turn out well.
Most contact tracing apps are rife with problems that governments are trying to fix. In some cases, downloads by millions of people produced just 14 alerts.
There’s quite a bit of coverage of how the UK’s effort fell flat (NYT + Wired + MIT Tech Review + TBIJ). Some see the app’s failure as a worrying sign of how Apple has come to dictate government policy. Meanwhile, the government has been forced to reveal its data deals with big tech (Conversation + Open Democracy).
The US has its own digital tracing flops. So does France. The Irish version has been used despite accuracy concerns. Norway stopped using its app citing privacy risks.
There’s an argument that this reflects a failure in the potential of technology to live up to the task.
Meanwhile, traditional tracing isn’t without its problems. Some contact tracers are having a seriously hard time—there are death threats involved. But Germany has done well by sticking to the traditional, manual contact tracing that’s worked in Asia, and in Cuba (WaPo + Economist + Guardian).
Country report cards
Among the handful of countries that have hit the headlines over the months, Sweden stands apart for the fairly relaxed response it adopted from the start.
Well, the verdict is in, and it’s not good. Even the epidemiologist behind the country’s strategy of not imposing lockdowns admits that too many people died as a result (BBC + WaPo + Bloomberg + BMJ + FT). It's now clear it relied on assumptions that didn't hold up. And the country’s economy hasn't benefitted from the lax approach, leaving it with a lose-lose situation.
Elsewhere, there’s much criticism levelled at the US and the UK—two of the richest, most powerful and scientifically advanced countries—both well-prepared on paper, and both falling short in reality. In a scathing book, Lancet editor Richard Horton levels heavy criticism on their leaders for getting it so wrong.
There’s plenty of analysis of why America is failing—here’s just one from the Washington Post. It got to the point where TIME called the country's response worse than China's.
This headline from the Huffington Post was less gracious about it.
Who needs WHO?
Why let the truth get in the way of a good story, goes a saying in the UK that I often doubt can be fully attributed to dry humour.
And so, while the US sees infections soar, the Trump administration submits its formal notice of withdrawal from the WHO, which is currently being reviewed (AP + STAT + Devex).
Then, the WHO announced an independent evaluation of global COVID-19 response, which it says won’t be limited to its own performance. It's been called a shrewd move in light of the political mudslinging around the response. But is that evaluation likely to be truly independent?
This is a succinct and insightful take on the politics surrounding this review, by Charles Clift at the Chatham House.
Finally, a touch of optimism
How Guayaquil, a city in Ecuador, managed a turnaround in its coronavirus crisis - WSJ
On Rwanda's success, complete with drones and robots - NPR Goats & Soda + Daily Nation + Nature
How did Japan beat the virus without lockdowns or mass testing? It’s not down to a single measure - Bloomberg
An interesting take—critical of media stereotypes—on why don’t we hear about the low number of coronavirus deaths in Central Europe - Conversation
The King who ordered a quarantine to flatten the curve 4,000 years ago - Narratively
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