3 big-picture trends to watch

🌐 A snapshot after successive global shocks.

Jan 27, 2023

🌐 WorldWise View | global perspectives on health, development, planet

Let’s take a step back.

Here we are, somewhere between the start of 2023 and the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine. Part of me is still in stock-taking mode—so I’ve sat down to reflect on what’s come through my desk over the past year, particularly over the past 6 months of the newsletter’s weekly Briefings ($).

You won’t find much by way of optimism in what’s coming. That doesn’t mean there aren’t good trends to be found. But the snapshot was captured without optimism/pessimism filters—simply salient trends I see coming to the surface.

#1—Geopolitics and energy shake-up

Already shaken up by the pandemic, almost a year ago the world was rattled once again by the war on Ukraine. The pattern that has gradually emerged since then is one of shifting geopolitical alliances. In the words of David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee:

Ukraine has united the West but split the rest.

The reluctance of some governments in the Global South to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a sign of that split. And in many cases it’s wrapped up with a tussle for cheap energy sources, but not necessarily *clean* energy sources.

Among the developments that speak to that is Europe’s turning to Africa for supplies of natural gas—even boosting military support to Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province where violence is threatening a project meant to reduce European reliance on Russian energy. Elsewhere, Uganda is looking for funding from China to start gas and oil exploration projects by 2025. And the World Bank expects Senegal’s economy to grow by 8% this year off the back of rising private investment in its oil and gas industry.

The shifts are wider and more complex. India, for instance, is now Russia’s largest oil client after China, and continues to build ties with Africa in pursuit of new markets on the continent.

We’ve already seen the knock-on effects of the energy scramble on the climate crisis play out in the lack of substantial progress—beyond the ‘loss-and-damage’ fund—at this year’s COP27. The final text of the agreement in Egypt included a provision to boost “low-emissions energy”, which translates to support for exploiting gas reserves.

#2—Hunger and soaring humanitarian needs

It wasn’t just energy: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine squeezed wheat supplies too. The prices of both soon soared, adding to economic hardship brought on by the pandemic.

But while for many of us it’s a matter of paying more for basic supplies, millions around the world rely on humanitarian aid to get by. The Ukraine war’s impact on prices also translates to a rising cost to humanitarian NGOs securing and providing those staples—just as the number of people in need is rising.

Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and Afghanistan are among the places where we’re seeing warnings of starvation and famine.

A record 339 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian relief this year. It is an increase by almost a quarter over last year, according to the UN. And although the number reflects needs not only related to food, it is driven by the Ukraine war and food crises.

But the climate crisis is also a factor. Covid-19 and drought linked to climate change have in many cases preceded and amplified the shockwaves from Ukraine.

#3—Infectious-disease comebacks

For about as long as the pandemic was top of the agenda, we heard warnings of how disruptions to immunisation and other health services would lead to a resurgence of other infectious diseases.

There are now clear rising trends for measles and polio. Over the past year or so, cases of wild polio have cropped up in parts of Africa that had been free of the disease for decades—and cases of vaccine-derived polio, a weaker form of the virus, were reported in Jerusalem, London and New York. In the case of measles, there’s "an imminent threat in every region of the world", the WHO and US health agency said in a recent joint report, citing ongoing outbreaks in 20 countries and a record-high number of children without a first or second vaccine dose in 2021.

There’s also a rise, for the first time in 20 years, in the global number of people with tuberculosis. Pandemic disruptions are cited for the upward trend in this case too.

The more unexpected resurgence is that of cholera. Tens of thousands of suspected cases have been reported across Syria in an ongoing outbreak, the first in over a decade. From there the disease has reached Lebanon, which was cholera-free since 1993, raising fears of further spread in the region. Haiti is also battling an outbreak. But it’s not just conflict zones. For nearly a year now Malawi has struggled to contain its worst outbreak in decades. Overall, cases of the disease appear to have surged globally this year. But whether this trend is linked to the pandemic is unclear.

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Story Threads

Ok, we’ll try for optimism this time, with three thematic highlights that include positive moves around the world, from recent Briefing ($) editions:

Climate & Environment—Colombia has said it will not approve any new oil and gas exploration projects in an attempt to shift away from reliance on fossil fuels. Zambia has signed a $2 billion agreement with the United Arab Emirates to build solar plants. And Chile’s government has rejected a controversial iron and copper mining project due to concerns over its impact on nearby biodiversity and marine life.
Gender & Rights—Sierra Leone’s president has signed a law which introduces a 30% jobs quota for women in both the public and private sector, and guarantees 14 weeks of maternity leave along with equal pay and training opportunities. In Bolivia, a rape survivor has found justice from the inter-American court of human rights which ruled that the government was “internationally responsible” for violating her rights and for discrimination based on her gender during judicial proceedings.
Tech & Society—An analysis of limited data supports expert warnings that, through cutbacks in moderation, Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter has emboldened Brazil’s far-right by boosting right-wing versus left-wing and liberal accounts. Meanwhile, Meta has shut down its East African content moderation hub. And there are signs that Iran may be using facial recognition technology to punish women who they believe have violated hijab law, even when the women haven’t interacted with police.

Based on Briefings published January 17 + January 24.

ICYMI

The previous VIEW edition featured my take on Broken Spectre, a work by photographer Richard Mosse, who spent the past five years documenting environmental crimes across remote parts of the Brazilian Amazon. It follows this op-ed for Undark magazine, where I discuss the work from the perspective of its use of technological tools.

Media Insider

For those of you looking to support journalism or audiovisual projects—a selection of opportunities with imminent deadlines from recent Media ($) posts:

Reporters anywhere in the world who wish to learn about the most pressing issues in journalism today, as well as the professional use of tools like data visualisation, podcasts, and virtual reality, can attend the online Global Journalism Seminar Series. By Reuters Institute—register to attend from January 11 to March 8.
Filmmakers can submit their non-fiction short films to the Short Shorts Film Festival & Asia. The films should explore societal issues and diverse lives around the world. By Short Shorts Film Festival & Asia—closing January 31.
Journalists who publish work in the UK can send entries to the ABSW Awards 2023, in categories like Video, Science Podcast, Investigative Journalism and more. By the Association of British Science Writers—closing January 31.
Journalists covering agricultural or food industry topics in French can enter a contest under the written and audiovisual categories. By AFJA—closing January 31. (French)
Indigenous reporters in Brazil who are interested in addressing threats and attacks to Indigenous people and their territories can apply for one of 5 small grants to help fund their reportage. By Agência Pública—closing January 31. (Portuguese)
Journalists worldwide can send stories that investigate commercial bribery to the 2023 Prize for Investigative Reporting. The prize recognises journalism that uncovers business-related bribery and financial crime with the goal of increasing commercial transparency and good governance. By the TRACE Foundation—closing January 31.
Journalists in Southern and Eastern Africa who have contributed to regional integration by producing broadcast stories on the subject can send their work to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Media Awards 2023. By COMESA—closing January 31.
Journalists, scholars and filmmakers from around the world who have original, ambitious and viable ideas and projects on the most pressing issues of our time and want to advance those ideas can apply for the 2023-24 New America fellowships. By New America—closing February 1.
Young journalists can submit their work to the Livingston Awards, which recognise the best journalists under 35 years of age. Prizes of $10,000 will be presented in three categories: local, national and international reporting. By Wallace House Center for Journalists—closing February 1.
Journalists working in any medium worldwide can apply for a grant to receive support from journalist mentors to cover coastal resilience stories in their communities. By Earth Journalism Network—closing February 6.
Mid-career journalists anywhere in the world who have at least 5 years of experience can apply for the Journalist Fellowship Programme, to deepen their understanding of journalism and the news industry. By Reuters Institute at The University of Oxford—closing February 6.
Photographers with work that engages with the African continent or its diaspora can send entries to be considered for the The Contemporary African Photography Prize. The five chosen photographers will present their work in a series of large scale outdoor exhibitions around the globe. By the CAP Prize and Eiger Foundation—closing February 7.
Anyone from anywhere in the world who wants to develop the skills needed to break into the industry and forge a career in media can attend the free, online Journalism Jobs and Skills event hosted by City University’s Journalism department. By City University—on February 8.
Journalists who cover the Global South, especially those working on stories that break through stereotypes, change the narrative and connect people across cultures, can enter their work to the One World Media Awards. By OWM—closing February 9.
Early-career journalists from low- and middle-income countries in biodiversity hotspots can apply for the Y. Eva Tan Conservation Reporting Fellowship to receive training, experience and credibility to report on crucial environmental issues. By Mongabay—closing February 10.
Teams of cross-border journalists worldwide who want to investigate the exploitation of Asian victims of forced labour and human trafficking in Europe can apply for Modern Slavery Unveiled grants to help cover working time and expenses. By journalismfund.eu—closing February 16.
Visual storytellers who work with communities for land and/or water protection can receive $5000 grants for the creation of an impactful photography project, a video piece, and a community exhibition of the work. By Photographers Without Borders—closing February 21.
Journalists worldwide who want to work on an underreported subject in the public interest can apply for NYU’s Reporting Award for funding and access to NYU’s scholarly resources and access to the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute’s facilities. By New York University and Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute—closing February 21.
Applications for a LGBTQI+ Reporting Initiative are open to journalists in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico. Participants will receive training and grant opportunities to produce high-quality journalism by and about women and LGBTQI+ people. By IWMF—closing February 21.

WorldWise

3 big-picture trends to watch

🌐 A snapshot after successive global shocks.

🌐 WorldWise View | global perspectives on health, development, planet

Let’s take a step back.

🌐 WorldWise highlights | news, analysis and media opportunities

Story Threads

Based on Briefings published January 17 + January 24.

ICYMI

Media Insider

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